Here are some gems just from the last week alone:

1. Perot Systems FrontRunning – ZeroHedge.
2. Blatant reinflation of housing bubble – Denninger.
3. Corruption at HUD – Karl Denninger.

The SEC was not able to catch a ponzi scheme even after Harry Markopolos delivered it to them on a silver platter. 

Paulson and Bernanke have been incredibly incorrect on their assessment of the health of the US economy.

Choose your sources of information/facts/news very carefully.  Stick with those that are honest enough to state their opinions openly and publish their predictions.

Read what you disagree with before drawing your conclusions.

There is a difference between loyalty and blind loyalty.  Blind loyalty to anything (religion, government, ideology, spouse) is deadly.

Takeaway:  Perpetual reliance on someone else’s seal of approval will rot your brain.  Complacency kills.

Amazing how Mr. Hope and Change is opposed to auditing the Fed and fully supports those who fed us a massive spoonful of corporate welfare.

Takeaway:  Governments are power structures which are abused/manipulated.  Giving up power/money to the government to fix our economy, environment, schools or anything is a mistake.  Audit the Fed.

For those “economists” who’ve lately been singing his praises on CNBC, all I have to say is this…

It takes a special kind of system (government) to screw up this badly and still be resoundingly supported by its leader.

In his reappointment speech Obama also pledged support for the continued secrecy independence of the Federal Reserve.

How foolish of citizens to inquire where trillions of dollars are being spent… clearly we should trust the former bankers running the Federal Reserve that regulate the banking system. After all, they obviously know what they’re doing.

Instead of perpetuating the broken system financed by politically embedded financial organizations, Obama could have attempted any of the following:

• Raise awareness of the ghastly unaffordable pension schemes which will inevitably crumble
• Strictly enforce FASB mark to market accounting standards instead of allowing companies to use “judgment” to value their toxic assets
• Clamp down on High-Frequency Trading
• Require the FDIC to close and wind down insolvent banks before the government taxpayer-funded safety net has to be used
• Eliminate alphabet soup bailout programs which are forms of corporate welfare
• Demanded transparency for toxic assets which traveled from insolvent banks to taxpayers
• Slash parts of a budget (military, NASA, HUD, etc.) that are so bloated we must borrow billions from foreigners to stay afloat.

Would that severely correct the housing and stock markets? Yes, probably. Can we continue on our current path? No. Will we eventually face unbearable consequences for our decisions? Yes.

Ironically, neither Bernanke nor Obama nor either political party seem to care about the following message:

It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve–nor would it be appropriate–to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions. – Ben Bernanke

So, Obama reappointing the guy who didn’t see any of this coming, who bailed out the irresponsible, who continues to provide cover for banks in the hopes that things will return to normal still makes Obama the “man of the people”? Why aren’t those who voted for Obama clamoring that this Bush appointee is more of the same? Why do horrible decisions not matter when *their* party is in charge?

The reappointment of Bernanke does have a silver lining. All the people that bought into the hope proffered in eloquent speeches that government can provide jobs, clean energy, healthcare, education and other goodies will eventually learn a valuable lesson. The love affair Americans have with celebrity, good looks and good speeches and a lack of discourse/intellectual honesty will finally meet its match against a tidal wave of financial reality.

We are witnessing firsthand government selling Hope while funding Grift.

A generation will learn that our government system, like all systems which redistribute power and wealth, is one that is relentlessly gamed and manipulated for the benefit of those in charge.

Takeaway: Strip away the external validation that media/family/friends give to people and institutions and think for yourself.

The obfuscation via government intervention in all its forms (stupendous deficits, subsidies to failed corporations/business models, pork barrel handouts) is one of the factors seducing people into a false sense of complacency that our economy is just fine.  Borrowing money to keep your bills paid might seem ok, until you realize the borrowed money must be paid back with interest.

In less government-dependent/credit-fueled times, a major decision like raising a child was saved up for and anticipated.  Healthcare was funded out of pocket or with straightforward insurance.  Retirement required savings.  Nowadays, our government promises us all these goodies with borrowed money, which we will eventually pay for with interest (assuming the dollar doesn’t collapse first).

In less government-reliant times, there were fewer entitlements, senses of entitlement or bogus lawsuits which now haunt would be doctors and entrepreneurs. Why bother using your MIT degree to start a new business when you can day trade and make the “market more efficient”… hah!

Even the stock market used to be a reasonable measure of future economic value.  Now it is a game profitable game to be played/manipulated with enormous  leverage.  The S&P PE ratio is over 100 according to S&P and the graphical evidence is stunning.  Anyone with their 401(k) invested in stocks is asking to be smoked.  Meanwhile, insiders are bailing out.

I have no desire to go back to days of extreme hardship or give up technology, but it seems the more government obfuscation we allow to seep into our lives, bit by bit, the further we get from the truth and honest consequences of our lifestyles.  A single woman with three kids who is reliant on the state for breakfast and lunch year-round is in a worse off position since the true costs of her lifestyle are not borne by her, but rather, the taxpayer, who is under increasing pressure to stop paying them.  This “help” that the State provides via welfare, subsidized housing and other giveaways are not sustainable and ultimately dangerous for its beneficiary.

If you want to ruin a man, give him everything he wants.  Never let him fail, struggle, grow or mature into a man. – Inthon.com

As a result of government encroachment on all levels of life we are living in delusion about how much things *actually* cost and how they function.  There are now entire families dependent on the government for food assistance, educational assistance, medical assistance and job placement assistance.  This is neither normal nor sustainable.

As the credit-fueled economy inevitably slows down and inflation spike or benefits are cut, there will be a lot of disillusioned, angry and unprepared people.  There have been numerous chances to come clean from politicians, media and leaders.  Instead, all we hear are happy bromides about how things will be back to normal.  The only voices sounding the alarm that the debt-fueled economy is unsustainable are drowned out.

Takeaway:  I hate to be so closed-minded as “government bad” “free market good”, but it is obvious to anyone paying attention that the more we cede our power and money to the government, the less reliant, intelligent, capable, stable and robust we are as a society.

Two GEMS by Karl.

1)  Catches Barney Frank lying.

I’ve always said the American dream should be a home – not homeownership,’’ said Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the earliest critics of the Bush administration’s push to put mortgages in the hands of low- and moderate-income people. – Barney Frank, boston.com article

Now watch the clip…

Quote of the clip… the last 12 seconds:

…but you’re not going to see the collapse that you see when people talk about a bubble.

Barney Frank is ideologically bankrupt, intellectually dishonest and self-serving.

He pats himself on the back when things to go right, then claims no responsibility when things blow up in his face.  Anytime people say that Barney Frank is “working on a bill”, remember this clip.  Thank you, Karl, for finding this and sharing it with the public.

2)  The truth about the overvalued stock market:

Let me note that this is all short-term trading - there is absolutely no intelligent way to INVEST for the “long term” in a market that is acting as this one has been for the last month and change.  The only INTELLIGENT thing to do as a LONG TERM INVESTOR in a market that is blowing off on a parabolic spike engendered by LEGALIZED ACCOUNTING FRAUD (the FASB “MTM” change) is to SIT IN CASH, as it is essentially impossible to know WHEN that fraud will be exposed and cause the market to return to underlying fundamental value BUT IT IS A CERTAINTY THAT IT WILL OCCUR.

Again, what does it take to get this covered on CNBC or any major news outlet?  Every CNBC guest spot ends with a BUY recommendation for some fund manager.  CNBC never mentions the P/E ratio is still over 100 for the S&P.

Karl Denninger does a fantastic job of not only understanding economics, delving into the details and reporting his nuggets of wisdom, but he also agitates for education, awareness and activism.

He takes the time to understand the issue and present the facts in a useful manner.  He does this without any allegiance to any bogus political “party”.

Takeaway: The media love to broadcast whatever sells ads (Sarah Palin news, celebrity gossip, the newest pill to pop, the latest diet miracle, etc.).  This is rarely compatible with useful, important information.

The websites on the right-side of the page have taught me more than CNBC, network news and my college finance professors combined.  Seek out the best friends possible, best sources of information possible and best “food” for your brain possible.

The most successful heists are the ones that occur every day that we are not even aware of.  The Federal Reserve, the quasi-governmental agency run by ex-bankers, that controls the money supply, interest rates and manages the economy is an agency very few are familiar with.

Given the trillions of taxpayer dollars on the hook and the delicate state our economy is in, H.R. 1207 aims to audit the ongoing Federal Reserve activities.

For years, the author of this bill, Ron Paul, has spoken up and drawn attention to the importance of sound money (money with tangible value, like gold and silver) and an economy which is not micromanaged by ex-bankers or manipulated in a secretive fashion. Paul has always been a political outsider and it is good to finally see his attempts to uncover the truth finally gain some momentum.

Since politicians, like all of us, are self-interested, we need to exert our influence and let them know we expect this bill to pass.

Since this bill would expose a great deal of financial/governmental/corporate connections, it would not surprise me if there is another financial panic/disaster and this bill is pushed aside to give even more power to the Fed and Executive Branch.

The above video speaks volumes about the shape of our economy and the level of dishonesty that is fraught in our financial and economic system.

Takeaway:  As a man, it is imperative to be ever-inquisitive, curious and non-complacent.  Reading and questioning your beliefs can help you generate an Accurate Model of Reality and prepare better for your future.  Think for yourself and stand up for what you believe in, even if you stand alone.

hat tip:  Zero Hedge

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My morning bus rides invariably begin with a visit to the Bloomberg app on my iPhone. I find their journalism to be second to none in the financial space, thanks to Bloomberg’s worldwide focus and very informed opinion writers. However, I was taken aback when I came across the following headline and attached article last Thursday:  Citigroup Rescue Earns Three Times as Much as S&P 500

It is important to note the new title was modified from the original title “Citi pays taxpayers 3 times as much as S&P“.

Regardless of the title, this article contains blatant propaganda that is designed to mislead and deceive the Average Joe.  The general tone of the article suggests that the entire Citigroup “situation” is now a complete piece of historical fact to be analyzed as such.

Logic leads the reader to conclude that we (the taxpayers) have locked in some sort of gain, thus proving the Citi bailout was a good idea since we’ve collected a couple billion in dividends.

Nothing could be further from the truth, and there are many examples of how this logic is an inappropriate way to analyze any investment.

First, the author of this article is only talking about one government department, the Treasury.  Let’s review what happened here:  The Fed has purchased some $2-5 trillion in assets (depending on who you ask, and don’t you dare ask the Fed what they’ve purchased) from U.S. banks. This is the most important aspect of the multi-faceted bank bailout, for without these purchases, most major U.S. banks would be out of business.

What’s relevant here is that the Fed and the Treasury are completely separate government entities. The Fed is directly responsible for bidding up toxic assets and exposing taxpayers to massive, unknown, impossible to define amounts of credit risk. This socialization of losses is what saved Citi, but it didn’t cost the Treasury a dime.  To suggest that the taxpayers somehow made out like bandits is untrue, amateur reporting.

By stepping in and literally becoming THE market in many segments of the credit market, the Fed has so far done a fantastic job of propping up the assets on their balance sheet. That’s not to say they’re showing a gain, that’s not to say the Fed is showing a loss. Once again: no one knows.

What we do know is that the eventual value of most of these assets is going to be dependent on cash flows from mortgage payments, rather than current marks. Right now, these cash flows are a monumental risk, a subject which is completely ignored by this Bloomberg article.

Perhaps most important, the Fed is desperate to see these investments work out. Ultimately, this will corrupt what’s left to be corrupted in the political process. No wonder the Fed recently hired Linda Robertson, former lobbyist for Enron. They need to convince Congress to bailout everyone who can’t pay their mortgage.

Finally, this article represents a shift in attitudes towards government intervention since the March lows in the markets.  I have been complaining about this for months and it really bothers me.

When governments around the world intervened and markets still fell off a cliff, I felt like everyday people were finally thinking critically about the futility and backward logic of government.  When S&P went from 1575 to 900, people were really freaking out. When we went from 900 to 666, people got to talking about genuine reform. They expressed anger about how the government incentivizes bad behavior and excessive use of leverage.  Now that markets have bounced from 666 back to 900, people have turned back into mindless cheerleaders.

Talk of genuine reform has stalled as our problems have been bandaged by trillions of borrowed dollars.

The government has declared victory and the media keeps churning out propaganda, as evidenced by the article discussed above.

Aren’t we better than this?

It is disconcerting that this incredibly important and relevant information is disseminated from a blogger, rather than a major “news” outlet, or even a financial news outlet.

• Fed US Taxpayer paid 100 cents on the dollar (rather than market value) for Credit Default Swap settlements with investment banks.
• Banks sending Notices Of Default but not foreclosing on homes and realizing losses in an attempt to look “healthier” (solvent).
• Made unrealistic promises to unions to get them to vote for you?  No problem, Barney Frank wants the government taxpayer to insure the municipal bond market.  Why bother living within your means when you can create laws that distort market forces?

Tragic.  There are no free lunches and accounting tricks cannot fix a country that is reliant on cheap energy, endless credit, deficit spending and perpetually rising asset prices.

Takeaway:  Mark to market your own life and confront your weaknesses head-on.  This introspection can yield insights on behavioral changes you need to make to avoid a painful crash.

Hat Tip:  Karl Denninger has done an outstanding job diligently reporting on the financial markets and sharing his knowledge on his blog.  If you want honest reporting, please check out his site.

My initial reaction of skepticism was confirmed when many reputable bloggers (with their own capital on the line) expressed similar qualms over the weakness of government’s test.  The two short articles I have quoted are well worth the read.

A former FX trader, “Dude”, suggests that the test is direly lacking real-world stress. He cites much more dire scenarios, which the government has not tested:

1) China didn’t show up at a Treasury Auction and bond rates jumped 3-5%
2) China started dumping US$s on the open market and our exchange rate dropped 10%
3) The Fed, under such conditions, had to raise the Fed Funds rate by 5% quickly
4) An act of war or natural disaster struck one of the big coastal cities, putting it entirely out of commission thus pushing GDP down 6-10% quickly

Admittedly, the Treasury is more interested in a longer view than I was, although given the highly leveraged derivatives positions, they might be well served to also inquire about substantial, discontinuous price changes.

I’m troubled that they don’t test for what the past suggests is possible.

What if Unemployment goes to 30% as it did in the 30s?

What if Inflation falls to -5% or rises to 12%?

What if Fed Funds goes to 17% as it did in the early 80s?

What if we can’t roll-over our foreign held debt, as has happened to most nations which have run up as large an external debt position as ours?

Karl Denninger at Market Ticker mentions:

According to The Fed’s “More Adverse” scenario prime delinquencies will reach 3-4%. Note that the PRESENT serious delinquency rate on Fannie’s credit book for single family homes is at 3.15%.  Nowhere in the “mainstream media” (e.g. CNBC, etc) has this been mentioned but it is literally right in your face while reading the Fannie quarterly report.

If we accept the above as true, we must logically draw one of two conclusions.

1. The government knows that the stress the system could endure could be much worse.  They have decided to deliberately ignore or discount this data to assuage our fears and not report the full truth to us.  In other words, they are knowingly lying to us.  If this is in fact the case and if the government is trying to deceive us, Geithner, Bernanke and Obama should be held responsible for the misdeeds, regardless of political party.
2. The government is ignorant of these facts that other individuals have adroitly discovered.  This would mean they are not the most intelligent or conscientious leaders to be running our financial system.  They are not fit to be in charge and should be removed as soon as possible, regardless of political party.

Takeaway:  There is a simple theme we can learn from the stress test and it comes from Buddha.  He says:

“Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.”

Ben Bernanke has made statements such as:

“It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions.”

(Freddie and Fannie) “…will make it through the storm”, “… in no danger of failing.”,”…adequately capitalized”

We’ve had a $700 billion bailout and numerous corporate-welfare financial programs (CPFF, TLGP, PPIP, CPFF, TARP, etc.).  Fannie and Freddie have been nationalized.

Karl Denninger has published his remarkably accurate predictions publicly (2008, 2009) and stood by them.  People might think you’re a fool for believing a blogger, rather than an MIT-educated expert.  Look at the evidence and track-record and decide for yourself. Just because someone is a popular leader (religious, business, political) or has a popular title doesn’t mean they are any more thoughtful, intelligent or honest than someone without popularity.

For more on the crisis, read here.

The inane setup of our monetary system has led our problems, where government sets short-term interest rates, manipulates its currency, lets overleveraged banks borrow at below market rates via the Discount Window, engages in open-market transactions, and creates money out of thin air to fight wars for no clear reason, et cetera.

That, coupled with government initiatives like “making homes affordable” leads to such ideas like buying subprime mortgages (via Fannie and Freddie) and then having the taxpayer bail out the government entity when it inevitably fails.

The mindset that we will ease out of this crisis in a few years is delusional.  People’s expectations have been warped into believing the last six-seven years of growth have been genuine.  They haven’t.  The credit boom started after the dot-com crash and only when prices of assets (housing, equities) return to those levels will we see the start of a healthy correction.  Yes, house prices need to come down.  This happens by foreclosures and assets moving from those that cannot carry the debt burden to those that can.  Letting people who can’t afford to stay in their home stay there isn’t a solution.  Having the taxpayer buy the mortgage via Freddie Mac, then “renegotiate” the mortgage and take a loss should aggravate anyone with a sense of responsibility.  The hero-worship that President Obama is going to miraculously create compounding wealth by printing up cash and paving roads thereby returning us to the good old days is simply not going to happen.

Only a repudiation of our current banking and monetary system will solve this problem in the long-run.  A free market in money and currency is needed as well as the total separation of Economy and State.

To read more about our economic woes, read here.