Dec

1

Goodbye from Nassim Taleb

Filed Under Intellectual Honesty | 1 Comment

A gem from Nassim Taleb, a trader who predicted the crash and sees more difficulties ahead:

What I am seeing and hearing on the news — the reappointment of Bernanke — is too hard for me to bear. I cannot believe that we, in the 21st century, can accept living in such a society. I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn’t even know he doesn’t understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible — as if we promoted every doctor who caused malpractice. The world has never, never been as fragile. Economics make homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.  (emphasis by Inthon)

No news, no press, no Davos, no suit-and-tie fraudsters, no fools. I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic quiet of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step. I will also structure trades with my Universa friends to bet on the next mistake by Bernanke, Summers, and Geithner. I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.

Bye,
Nassim

Bingo.

I would go one step further; rather than blaming the Senators, blame the voters who elected these Senators (all of whom are ignorant of the dangers of fiat currencies, central planning and central banking).

The U.S. has never been this fragile.  An economy reliant on consumption, cheap energy/commodities, easy credit, entitlements, corporate welfare and social welfare is not durable or sustainable.

The years ahead will require deleveraging on a large scale and small scale.  Those grounded with an awareness of our current unsustainability will be more apt to mentally weather the future slowdown/economic pain.

Takeaway: Borrowing money to spend on entitlements, wars and handouts cannot go on forever.  Prepare yourself for the consequences of our current financial immaturity.

Sep

28

ZeroHedge vs. the Financial Media

Filed Under Intellectual Honesty | Leave a Comment

Must read article by ZeroHedge which succinctly states why they have enjoyed such success and why the “financial media” are now playing catch-up.

When discussing financial matters, the “financial media” represented by “Establishment” type reporters and bloggers, just like the financial “regulators”, is woefully behind the curve.

Watching pretty faces like Brian Williams, Anderson Cooper and Charlie Gibson fade into oblivion is a delight; the fewer adults watching these powerpoint presentations of repetitive Democrat vs. Republican nonsense, sound-bite reporting and oversimplifications, the better.

Jaywalking is a good representation of the effects of 12+ years of schooling and “news” on our culture.

Takeaway:  Your mind is the most powerful “muscle” in your body.  Keep it in shape by reading and conversing with those you disagree with and those that challenge your existing views.  Watching 22.5 minutes of political gossip and sponsor-approved stories will rot your brain.

when discussing financial matters, the “financial media” represented by “Establishment” type reporters and bloggers, just like the financial “regulators”, is woefully behind the curve.

Sep

26

Honesty Is Sanity

Filed Under Intellectual Honesty | Leave a Comment

Great message from Harun I., a frequent contributor to Charles Hugh Smith’s website, OfTwoMinds.com I include his quote and then provide my thoughts at the bottom.

It is not under-education or an inability to think critically which part people from their money, it is their uncontrolled emotions. Faced with purchasing a house which they know is unaffordable or choosing to rent they will not bother to run the comparison as long as it is their dream and “someone” told them they could. Had grumpy old Mr. Critical Thought been allowed to show up and run a spread sheet or put the numbers into Quicken they (the cold, emotionless reality of the numbers) would have irrefutably deprived them of their “dream”.

This drama plays out everyday at different levels across the spectrum of human psychology, the food you should not eat because you are morbidly obese, the years-old but never used exercise equipment in the garage, the spouse or partner who is abusive but you can’t leave, the dress, shoes, house, boat, car you have to buy but cannot afford, the candidates we vote for because we like the way they part their hair. The inconsistencies, contradictions and convolutions are endless and mind-boggling to the point of madness to the observer.

Facing your inconsistencies and contradictions is a never-ending battle.  To avoid succumbing to negativity and false senses of happiness (mindless consumerism, distractions, addictions/vices), I’ve found the following help:

  • Surrounding yourself with friends, family that support and encourage your growth as a human.
  • Feeding your brain positive information (listening to and engaging your mind in positive thoughts).
  • Being introspective (journaling, silent thought) and determining your own value system, not one that your parents/your society gives you.
  • Being consciously aware of your own strengths, weaknesses and limitations.  Actively working to tilt the playing field in your favor.
  • Being honest with yourself, your lifestyle and those around you.  Honesty is sanity.

Takeaway:  Life is too short to waste time with distractions.  Since your mind can be your best friend or worst enemy, it makes sense to work on your attitude/worldview/values to have more peace of mind.

Sep

22

SEC, Where Art Thou?

Filed Under Intellectual Honesty | Leave a Comment

It should boggle everyone’s mind how easily bloggers are able to catch obvious fraud in the financial markets while the SEC and other regulatory bodies are looking the other way.

Here are some gems just from the last week alone:

  1. Perot Systems FrontRunning – ZeroHedge.
  2. Blatant reinflation of housing bubble – Denninger.
  3. Corruption at HUD – Karl Denninger.

The SEC was not able to catch a ponzi scheme even after Harry Markopolos delivered it to them on a silver platter. 

Paulson and Bernanke have been incredibly incorrect on their assessment of the health of the US economy.

Choose your sources of information/facts/news very carefully.  Stick with those that are honest enough to state their opinions openly and publish their predictions.

Read what you disagree with before drawing your conclusions.

There is a difference between loyalty and blind loyalty.  Blind loyalty to anything (religion, government, ideology, spouse) is deadly.

Takeaway:  Perpetual reliance on someone else’s seal of approval will rot your brain.  Complacency kills.

Sep

8

Outstanding Work Performance

Filed Under Intellectual Honesty | Leave a Comment

How can we be the equivalent of this man at our jobs?

How can you take a mundane task and do it so well it inspires others?

How can we serve our employers, families and customers in this way?

Takeaway:  Every act of creation is a self-portrait.  Take pride in  your work.